The Middle Eastern tsunami is approaching the Transcaucasus
Stanislav Tarasov, December 27, 2017, 13:26 – REGNUM
Turkish Prime Minister Binali Yildirim paid an official visit to Nakhichevan, held talks with the chairman of the Supreme Mejlis of the Nakhichevan Autonomy, Vasif Talibov. Over the past nine years, this is the first visit to the region by a Turkish politician at the level of the Prime Minister.
If you follow the logic of the reports of Turkish and Azerbaijani media, the main subject of dialogue between the parties was the development of trade and economic cooperation. According to the published data, Turkey’s share in the turnover of the Nakhichevan Autonomous Republic has increased by 2000 thousand dollars and amounted to 7.685 million dollars in comparison with the last year for 11 months of this year. At the same time, autonomy was able to conduct free export of products to Turkey, which, if the Turkish media believes, will bring the volume of exports of goods from Nakhichevan to $ 100 million. Nevertheless, it seems to us that Yildirim’s visit was not only related to this. On the eve of Talibov visited Iran, where he met with Iranian Foreign Minister Muhammad Javad Zarif. The Nakhichevan leader said that he was interested in further expanding ties with Iran in the energy, tourism and cargo transportation sectors.
This reveals certain features. First. Turkish-Azerbaijani relations on the Nakhichevan direction are covered with Iranian problems in the situation of absence of common borders between the autonomous republic and the metropolis – Azerbaijan. The second. Autonomy does not border on Nagorno-Karabakh – the epicenter of the ongoing conflict between Baku and Yerevan. Third. In the event of an armed Azerbaijani-Armenian conflict, Nakhichevan may turn out to be an alleged theater of military operations. By the way, during the fighting in April 2016, several skirmishes took place on the border of Nakhichevan with Armenia. Baku is building up a cluster of weapons in Nakhichevan, conducting various military exercises with Turkey, is trying to raise Ankara’s status there, which is not acceptable for Tehran. So, in this direction, there is a conflict potential.
The way out is as follows. First. Unlocking Nakhichevan through Turkey and Iran, strengthening the self-sufficient importance of this enclave without linking the problem of its position with the settlement of the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict. The second. Establishment of Turkish-Armenian trade and economic cooperation. Third. One can also consider changing the existing status of Nakhichevan – the transition from the protectorate rule of Nakhichevan from Baku to full membership in Azerbaijan. Let us recall that Article 134 of the Constitution of Azerbaijan defines the status of Nakhichevan as follows: “The Nakhchivan Autonomous Republic is an autonomous state within the Azerbaijan Republic”. Article 1 of the Constitution of the Nakhichevan Autonomy states: “The Nakhchivan Autonomous State is a democratic, legal, secular autonomous republic within the Azerbaijan Republic”.
Moreover, article 2 of the Nakhichevan Constitution has a remarkable detail: “The status of the Nakhchivan Autonomous Republic is determined by the Constitution of the Republic of Azerbaijan, Moscow – on March 16, 1921 and Kars – on October 13, 1921 international treaties.” However, neither the Moscow nor Kars agreements contain articles on Nakhichevan’s entry into Azerbaijan. They speak only of the protectorate and the protection of Baku over autonomy. In our opinion, the solution of the Nakhichevan problem can lead to a decrease in the degree of mutual intolerance and hatred between Azerbaijanis and Armenians, the restoration of confidence and the traditions of good-neighborliness, and the unlocking of the transport artery between Baku and Nakhichevan. It is necessary to take efforts in this direction now, because very few people know what the format of the future Kurdistan will be and whether Nakhichevan will be part of the Iranian Kurdistan.
It can not be ruled out that Iran, under certain conditions, will seek to take control of Nakhichevan. And for Russia it is time to stop playing the role of an “external observer” and be ready for the upcoming yet another Middle Eastern tsunami, which this time will go north – to the Transcaucasus.
ORIGINES SOURCE –regnum.ru/news/polit/2362889.html
ENGLISH TRANSLATION “LOUSAVOR AVEDIS“