09.03.2019 | Hakob Badalyan, Commentator:
The Azerbaijani foreign minister Elmar Mammedyarov has left for Iran where he will have meetings with the government of that country. In the meantime, Azerbaijan has declared a large-scale military exercise which will take place on March 11-15 and will bear a so-called offensive nature, as the spokesperson for the Armenian Ministry of Defense Artsrun Hovhannisyan posted on Facebook, expressing concerns that Baku thereby violated the Vienna Convention and did not inform about the military exercise duly.
Artsrun Hovhannisyan mentioned in his post that it is apparently related to the expected Pashinyan-Aliyev meeting, and is a means of pressure on the Armenian side.
It is for sure, and not something new, but Baku’s movements have much deeper motives. After the visit of the Armenian prime minister to Iran, as well as the statement that the director of the Armenian National Security made at the Artsakh-Iran border during this visit, Azerbaijan is hitting its head against the wall.
The Azerbaijani Foreign Minister Mammedyarov first talked to the Russian co-chair of the OSCE Minsk Group, then they set Zatulin on foot, through a so-called complaint, in order to utter return of territories through a so-called “pro-Armenian” person, thereby extorting opposition to the statement of the director of the Armenian National Security Service.
Now Mammedyarov is in Iran where Nikol Pashinyan made important statement and took a selfie with the banner “Artsakh is Armenia and that is it”. Official Tehran stated that he does not welcome such approaches but official Baku knows Iran’s state subtleties.
Therefore, Mammedyarov is leaving. But what is he going to tell Tehran? Will he threaten or will he try to persuade them not to cooperate with the Armenian side or will he say that Azerbaijan is ready to start a war if Armenia is not forced to step back from making tough statements and placing Baku in an awkward situation?
There are three other interesting circumstances here as well. Mammedyarov himself is in an awkward situation because the position of the Armenian side will make Azerbaijan face serious facts, force it to go for a sabotage in which case it will have to weigh its serious political and geopolitical consequences or vent out, such as replace the foreign minister. It is possible that Mammedyarov’s efforts from Russia to Iran are to save his own position.
In addition, his position has been wobbly for a long time, and it is not ruled out that Aliyev is keeping this card for a so-called “rainy day”.
The other circumstance is that along with Pashinyan’s Iranian visit unpleasant news for Tehran came from Russia. The Talish leader Fahraddin Aboszoda detained in that country was kidnapped-extradited to Baku.
This was seen as Moscow’s gift to Azerbaijan. On the other hand, this could be a trap. This was a trap not only because it hurt the dignity of the Talish people, and now it is a moment of truth for them to protect their dignity and their leader. It is also a trap because Iran will certainly look at the captivation of the leader of the Iranian-speaking people as a blow to itself.
Is Mammedyarov leaving for Tehran to persuade or convince that if Tehran saw it as a blow, it’s not Baku’s fault, it is Moscow’s fault and they just harnessed their “separatist” and that is it. Moreover, it should not be ruled out that even if Mammedyarov tries to persuade that it is better for Iran that Aboszoda remains in an Azerbaijani prison than in a Russian prison.
The third nuance is that after the visit of Nikol Pashinyan and the banner “Artsakh is Armenia and that’s it” several dozens of people in the Azerbaijani-populated territory of Iran went on protest and burn an Armenian flag. 30 were arrested.
Apparently, Baku set Mammedyarov on the road to assure that Azerbaijan has nothing to do with this action, recalling the recent statement by the Iranian president that in case of threats to the northern border of Iran Tehran will not hesitate to give a tough answer.
www.lragir.am/en/2019/03/09/71294
