Moscow and Washington fell into the trap of Erdogan
NOVEMBER 04, 2019 – INTERNATIONAL POLICY. ««STATEMENT On the implementation of the Arbitral Award of 28 President of the United States of America Woodrow Wilson of 22 November 1920-»»
Turkish officials again began to flirt with Moscow and Washington on issues of military-technical cooperation. One day, Ankara was able to question the supply of the second batch of S-400 air defense systems and to urge the United States to discuss the sale of Turkey’s F-35 fighters. According to experts, President Erdogan is thus trying to play on the contradictions of the two countries, which are forced to put up with this.
The Turkish government was thinking about delaying the supply of the second batch of S-400 Triumph anti-aircraft missile systems. This was announced on Monday by the head of the secretariat of the Turkish defense industry Ismail Demir. According to him, the delay may be associated with negotiations on technology transfer and the establishment of joint production of complexes. At the same time, Demir noted that the second phase of the S-400 supply could be implemented by the end of 2020.
“In the second phase of supplies of S-400, we have a calendar for next year. In this case, unlike the first stage, we are talking about joint production and transfer of technology. Joint production may slightly change the planned calendar, shifting it a little further in terms of time, possibly by the end of 2020, ”Demir said, adding that technical consultations are ongoing between Moscow and Ankara regarding the possibility of partial production of S-400 components in Turkey .
In addition, the same official earlier this morning announced Turkey’s desire to resume negotiations with Washington on the supply of US F-35 fighter jets. He also added that Ankara did not agree “with statements that the F-35 and S-400 cannot be in the same country.” “We do not see any problems from a legal point of view,” said Demir, but just in case he made a reservation that Ankara was considering Moscow’s offer to supply Russian fighters.
Recall that in July, in connection with the acquisition by Turkey of the Russian S-400, the United States announced the cessation of further participation of Ankara in the F-35 program. In addition, the US House of Representatives supported the bill on sanctions against Turkey.
Further, relations between Ankara and Washington were further aggravated after Turkey launched the military operation “Source of Peace” in the north of Syria, and then concluded the so-called “Sochi Agreements” with Moscow, which made it possible to significantly regulate the situation in this region. And while in Europe they were discussing a split in NATO, Russia managed to prematurely complete the delivery of all S-400 components to Turkey.
As a result, the United States avenged Ankara for the acquisition of S-400 systems, and for the Russian-Turkish agreements on Syria, preparing sanctions against the leadership of the republic and recognizing the Armenian genocide. And this, in turn, hurt the feelings of not only the ruling class of Turkey, but also of the local intelligentsia.
According to Andrei Kortunov, Director General of the Russian Council on Foreign Affairs (RIAC), this state of affairs is forcing the Turkish government and President Erdogan personally to begin to search for compromises with Washington.
“Ankara’s statements on the S-400 and F-35 make it clear that they do not want to aggravate the quarrel with the United States, because it threatens Turkey with unpleasant economic and political consequences. Therefore, Erdogan will still seek some kind of compromise with Trump, ”Kortunov told VZGLYAD newspaper.
“On the other hand, the Turks really want to produce the S-400 together with Russia. But judging by the comments we receive from our government structures, Moscow does not really like this idea.
In addition, there is a long line of other customers behind the S-400, and if the Turks refuse the systems, we will find where to put them, ”the source said.
Therefore, the expert continued, Erdogan may withdraw from the S-400 deal with relatively small reputation losses. “But these countries have disagreements not only on military equipment, but also on the situation in Syria as a whole and on the Kurds in particular, on relations within NATO, and on economic issues,” the political scientist recalled.
“In addition, in Washington, opinions are increasingly heard that Erdogan is becoming an authoritarian leader. And in such a situation, of course, Erdogan’s desire to resume negotiations on the F-35 retains some freedom of maneuver, ”said Kortunov.
According to the expert, the Turkish leader will maneuver between the interests of Moscow, Washington and NATO countries at least until the US presidential election, which is scheduled for November 2020.
“It is not yet known whether Trump will win the election or not. And if he wins, it is not known what his policy will be in the next cadence. Therefore, most countries, including Turkey, now have expectant tactics. Erdogan is unlikely to sit on two chairs for a long time. But until the next US election, this is quite realistic, ”Kortunov said.
At the same time, the director of the Center for the Study of the Middle East and Central Asia Semyon Baghdasarov believes that Erdogan can play on the contradictions of Russia, the United States and other NATO countries endlessly.
“Erdogan is one of the most powerful and cunning politicians of our time. Because everyone will endure it for a long time. And now he is very skillfully using the contradictions of the world powers in Syria to solve his own problems, ”Baghdasarov told the newspaper VZGLYAD.
At the same time, the expert called on the Russian leadership not to share with Turkey the technologies for the production of S-400 complexes. “We have helped Turkey a lot in history, just remember the 20s and 30s. And then during World War II, millions of armies were on our borders. Therefore, you need to be careful here, ”added Bagdasarov.
He recalled that “Erdogan has a lot to get away with,” because Russia is interested in implementing projects like Turkish Stream and the construction of Akkuyu NPP.
“Americans also see Erdogan’s behavior, and in the White House it provokes indignation. But they also have to turn a blind eye to a lot, given the role and weight of Turkey in NATO. But Turkey will not be excluded from the alliance. Firstly, Ankara will not want to leave from there; and secondly, they will not want to let her out of the block. Therefore, everyone will have to endure Erdogan until the change of power in Turkey, ”Bagdasarov concluded.
Source: Rambler
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