Stanislav Tarasov – Erdogan may lose Turkey in the battle for the Eastern Mediterranean
December 22, 2019 | Stanislav Tarasov: //regnum.ru//
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Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan may try to build “a single strategic highway Syria – Libya – the Eastern Mediterranean, persuade Russia to sign agreements like the Syrian, play on American fears of a Russian military presence in North Africa.” But he is at risk. And it can seriously lose.
According to the Turkish government agency Anadolu, the Turkish parliament has ratified the memorandum on security and military cooperation with Libya. The document was signed on November 27 in Istanbul. It provides for the possibility of sending Turkish troops to Libya at the request of Tripoli. It should be recalled that the Libyan government was recognized by the international community, including Russia, in accordance with the Shirat Agreements under the auspices of the UN. Al-Arabiyya TV channel believes that Tripoli may now turn to Ankara for military assistance, as there are no internal legal obstacles for the Turks to start a military operation in Libya.
The main question, as the British building Rai Al Youm writes, now consists in how Egypt will react, along with the UAE, and other members of the already existing anti-Turkish coalition in the Eastern Mediterranean – Greece, Cyprus, Israel, Jordan, Italy and Palestine. Especially in a situation where Field Marshal Khalif Haftar announced the start of an attack on Tripoli. In this regard, many experts and analysts agree that a serious armed conflict could potentially arise in northern Africa with the most incredible consequences. The only chance to avoid such a course of events is associated with the international conference on a peaceful settlement in Libya, scheduled for January 2020 in Berlin. Presidents of Russia Vladimir Putin and Turkey Recep Tayyip Erdogan have already received an invitation to participate in it. However, neither one nor the other has yet confirmed their intention to attend there.
According to Andreas Dittman, an expert at the University of Giessen, “there is a war in Libya involving many invisible but interconnected fronts.” Europe as a whole is relatively restrained. Italy is on the side of the government in Tobruk, and France supports General Haftar. As for Germany, it relies on diplomacy. Moreover, it is obvious that both Turkey and other NATO member countries involved in the Libyan crisis are far from building an agreed bloc policy. What will happen, for example, if the Egyptian Air Force begins to strike at Turkish warships when they arrive at the ports of Libya? Will Cairo deploy tanks, military equipment, planes and warships to Libya in support of Haftar? This option should not be ruled out either. What’s next? According to the British publication The Independent, Erdogan may try to build “a single strategic highway Syria – Libya – the Eastern Mediterranean, persuade Russia to sign agreements like the Syrian, play on American fears of a Russian military presence in North Africa.”
But, at the risk, he can seriously lose. Do not forget that the so-called Tripolitanian War (Trablusgarp Savaşı in the Turkish version) of the 1911-1912s, covering Tripolitania and Cyrenaica (the territory of modern Libya), as well as the Greek-speaking Dodecanese archipelago (including the island of Rhodes), became a harbinger of the collapse of the Ottoman empire. As for Russia, as Putin said, answering a question from an Anadolu employee during a large press conference on December 19 in Moscow, she “is in constant dialogue with all conflicting parties in Libya.” According to the Russian president, “in Libya, it is difficult to determine who is right and who is to blame, and the most correct at the present time is to find a solution that will stop the hostilities.”
In the meantime, as Israeli expert Seth Franzman writes, “Turkey has placed itself at the center of a fierce dispute in the Libyan civil war, and this has set the stage for clarifying relations in a wider part of the region.” Events are developing in a very alarming scenario.
December 22, 2019
Stanislav Tarasov
ORIGINE SOURCES-regnum.ru/news/polit/2814546.html
ENGLISH TRANSLATION “lousavor avedis“
