SHAHAN KANDAHARIAN – At the instigation of the border, Ankara offers a new deal in Moscow
07/19/2020 |: Politics |: Lragir.am:
The key parallels in terms of a strategic approach are evident in the statements made by the leaders of Baku and Ankara prior to the One Nation, Two States task.
According to Aliyev, the Azerbaijani people are tired of unnecessary discussions on the resolution of the Karabakh conflict, and the mediators must understand this. “The Azerbaijani people are tired of these senseless talks. That is why anyone who makes their mediation proposals these days should think about it, the patience of the Azerbaijani people is not without limits.”
And the President of Turkey simply repeated the same content. “Of course, Armenia is an occupier. The occupation of Armenia has been going on for decades.” Nakhichevan is busy and the Minsk group has left this matter on the table for 25 to 30 years. “Even abusing from the name of the territory (Nakhichevan instead of Artsakh), Erdogan simply repeated Aliyev’s idea.
It is clear that Baku and Ankara have decided to step up the pressure to give a new dimension to the conflict and above all to change the format of the negotiations.
Taking full advantage of Tavush’s actions, Ankara reported anti-Armenian rallies in various European cities. No matter how large-scale hostilities may be viewed, political logic suggests that keeping the state border choppy and tense is a strategic step in changing the format of negotiations.
The geographic positions of the conflict will change in this way. The Azerbaijan-Artsakh relationship will turn into an Azerbaijan-Armenia conflict, the line of contact will turn into a state border. And Turkey’s swift response and the scale of that involvement, or the policy of keeping the issue warm, suggests a new trend in the negotiation process and the assumption of Turkey’s role in that process.
Ankara and Baku will propose an agenda to replace the troika in this way. Aliyev and Erdogan both talk about consumption, inefficiency and therefore the need for a new mediation format.
This is where Ankara offers Moscow a new political trade. Push the United States and France out of the control sphere of the geopolitical conflict and reach a new bilateral agreement between Moscow and Ankara.
The agenda is certainly linked to the ambitious stages of Ankara’s foreign policy characterized by the new Ottoman Empire and directly to Libya, where Moscow and Ankara position themselves with contradictory diameters. At the instigation of a new front, Ankara is taking steps to create speculative materials for a new military-political agreement.
The escalation of the northeast border was therefore continued by the following targets:
A – Transform the Azerbaijan-Artsakh conflict into the Azerbaijan-Armenia conflict.
B. – Move the contact line to the state border.
C. – Form a new zone of conflict, to give no status to the cease-fire of 1994, which mainly referred to the contact line.
D. – Give a new dimension and new essence to the conflict, put pressure on the international community to clarify a new negotiation format, noting that the mission of the OSCE Minsk Group has been exhausted.
E. – Intensification of the Azerbaijan-Armenia conflict and proposal of new military-political agreements with Russia.
The program is unlikely to be practical. The Artsakh document is one of the few conflicts in the world in which the United States and Russia are involved, and in this case France, one of the pillars of the EU. Under current geopolitical conditions, it is unlikely that this format would make concessions in the face of Ankara’s maneuvers.
SHAHAN KANDAHARIAN
Editor-in-chief of the newspaper “Aztag”
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