Tarasov on the political reason for the recent clashes between Armenia and Azerbaijan
20.11.2021 Region: Armenia, Karabakh, Azerbaijan, Russia Topic: Politics
The latest clashes between Armenia and Azerbaijan indicate that one of the parties tried to stop a certain process. And it succeeded. Russian political scientist, expert on the problems of the countries of the Middle East and the Caucasus Stanislav Tarasov said this in an interview with Novosti Armenia-NEWS.am correspondent.
“It’s hard to say who started. The clash took place far from the location of the Russian peacekeepers, there are no observers, and the parties blame each other, ”he said.
According to the expert, this process coincided with interesting events.
“The Moscow-Yerevan-Baku format worked, which appeared after the 44-day war of the Karabakh war and the signing of a statement on November 9, 2020. One of its points speaks of the need to comply with the ceasefire regime. This one-day war in Syunik was a blow to this agreement and, ultimately, could completely destroy it.
In addition, the work of the OSCE Minsk Group has recently intensified. It is known that with her mediation in New York, and then in Paris, the Foreign Ministers of Armenia and Azerbaijan met.
The agendas of the “Moscow format” (Moscow-Yerevan-Baku) and the OSCE MG format diverge, because the OSCE MG officially did not refuse to consider the item on the status of Karabakh. That is, we are dealing with two negotiating platforms with different agendas. In such a situation, one of the parties could have played in their favor in order to change or undermine the base of the “Moscow format”, which happened. Moreover, these events were preceded by talks about a possible meeting between Aliyev and Pashinyan in Moscow, where they were supposed to sign an agreement on the demarcation and delimitation of the border. This is a vague story, since world practice suggests that such treaties are signed after the conclusion of a peace agreement. However, there is no such agreement between Armenia and Azerbaijan, and on the basis of the November 9 document it is difficult to resolve the issue of demarcation. Thus, a situation has developed in which both sides, for various reasons, could be interested in fomenting this conflict.
The situation is difficult, the situation remains tense. Here the factor of external force is obvious, but it is still difficult to define it.
It is clear from the behavior of Baku and Yerevan that the parties are not interested in a large-scale conflict, they are moving towards a peace agreement, but the approach to it is different. It is not clear in what format the preparation of the peace treaty will proceed – in the “Moscow format” or in the format of the OSCE Minsk Group.
Pashinyan seems to support the second format. As for Baku, he recently criticized the OSCE Minsk Group, believing that the Karabakh conflict was over and the OSCE Minsk Group could work on a different agenda, and then, for some unknown reason, sent the Foreign Minister to meet with his Armenian counterpart. That is, Azerbaijan has accepted this format, but on what terms?
As for the 3 + 3 format, at this stage it is a futile initiative, “Tarasov emphasized.
Recall that on November 16, Azerbaijan committed military aggression against Armenia, which led to local battles with the use of artillery, armored vehicles and small arms and human casualties on both sides. The fighting ended with the mediation of Russia.
NEWS.am
Inglish translation – lousavor-avedis.org
